Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 3.642202 3.977101 4.365854 4.861106 5.492702 6.299649 7.465299
2025-02-02 3.322338 3.769142 4.336786 5.150580 6.374087 8.356993 12.619738
2025-02-09 3.059790 3.543450 4.189851 5.186404 6.867907 10.211049 22.309282
2025-02-16 2.883130 3.390617 4.095770 5.249450 7.410052 12.786455 83.650283
2025-02-23 2.677104 3.169486 3.865548 5.036017 7.344340 13.891749 NaN
2025-03-02 2.565565 3.066038 3.791040 5.060075 7.771958 17.559683 NaN
2025-03-09 2.463399 2.965048 3.705603 5.044081 8.107512 22.451723 NaN
2025-03-16 2.351452 2.840686 3.570000 4.910705 8.098445 25.942253 NaN
2025-03-23 2.306713 2.810445 3.578783 5.050183 8.907887 51.930880 NaN
2025-03-30 2.205208 2.689134 3.429026 4.852123 8.624156 55.961743 NaN
2025-04-06 2.109247 2.571666 3.278336 4.636358 8.228032 52.196577 NaN
2025-04-13 2.039187 2.490027 3.181860 4.521470 8.133305 64.562361 NaN
2025-04-20 2.016808 2.481409 3.209310 4.674548 9.059884 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 2.011457 2.498335 3.281491 4.940990 10.743968 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.971614 2.459066 3.252406 4.973797 11.495983 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.938203 2.427958 3.234985 5.031459 12.508994 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.874343 2.345795 3.120621 4.835978 11.828448 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.842580 2.313524 3.094711 4.858051 12.611935 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.808372 2.275825 3.056381 4.843378 13.177379 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.763195 2.218864 2.979640 4.720843 12.831105 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.750553 2.213728 2.998026 4.848976 14.767741 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.702998 2.150313 2.904416 4.666926 13.683486 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 1.654928 2.085128 2.805879 4.467837 12.464103 NaN NaN